April 20, 2024

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[THE INVESTOR] For a nation facing a possible presidential election within a few months, the sudden deployment of the long-disputed Terminal High Altitude Area Defense anti-missile system may seem to reflect a political agenda, not just “military strategic reasons” as asserted by the government.

Political observers, as well as opposition parties, have cautiously suggested that the surprise action may be a pre-emptive move of the outgoing government to seal the deployment of the US battery before a progressive anti-THAAD administration steps in.

“(The sudden deployment action) was not at all related to the domestic political situation,” said an official of the Defense Ministry, explaining that the process was based on a prearranged schedule and the mutual agreement of South Korea and the US.

This came in answer to rampant speculations that the government may have attempted to confirm the much-disputed national security issue before the impeachment and consequent ouster of President Park Geun-hye.

The Constitutional Court’s final ruling on the impeachment trial, a decision that is to be handed down no later than March 13, could immediately end Park’s presidency and give way to an earlier-than-planned presidential election within the next 60 days. Under such a scenario, the nation is likely to hold its 19th presidential election in early May.

Currently, the front-runners in the race are mostly those of the opposition circles, with former Democratic Party of Korea chairman Moon Jae-in at the top and South Chungcheong Gov. An Hee-jung, of the same party, following behind him.

Acting President and Prime Minister Hwang Kyo-ahn leads in polling among potential candidates in the conservative camp, but his bid has not yet been confirmed.

With the plausibility of winning in the imminent presidential election, the opposition has largely demanded that details of the THAAD deployment be handed over to the next government, citing a lack of time.

“Our point is that we should leave the THAAD issue to the next administration so as to win the time to communicate with neighboring countries before making a final, irreversible decision,” said Rep. Woo Sang-ho, floor leader of the main opposition Democratic Party of Korea.

Aware of the growing calls for the anti-missile system deployment, attributable to North Korea’s recent set of missile launches, Woo turned criticism against the Park administration.

“I have been told that China was more angered by the way (South Korea) insulted its chief Xi Jinping, rather than the THADD deployment itself,” Woo said.

“This is the core of (the Park administration’s) diplomacy.”

A number of experts in Korea-China relations also agreed that the best alternative at this point of conflict is to reserve key decisions until later in the year, after South Korea kicks off a new state leadership and China holds its party convention.

“The Xi Jinping government would not want to be seen as vulnerable, especially ahead of its party convention slated for October-November this year,” said Kim Han-kwon, professor at the Korea National Diplomatic Academy.

“Until then, South Korea has little to gain by pushing ahead (with THAAD) as the Chinese leadership may only react vocally on the matter.”

Kim Heung-gyu, professor at Aju University’s China Policy Institute, pointed out that the incumbent Park administration no longer had the capacity to improve ties with China.

“The priority for the next administration is to rebuild trust with China, starting from scratch,” Kim said.

The incumbent administration and the ruling Liberty Korea Party, in contrast, have been striving to wrap off the THAAD deployment by the end of this year and within Park‘s term in office.

But as it became likely that Park will step down in mid-term, as early as within March, their action picked up speed, which was further boosted by North Korea’s missile launches.

Following the reclusive regime‘s mid-range ballistic missile in February, the Defense Ministry has been making gestures to push with the THAAD deployment. One of its moves was to confirm the corresponding site in Seongju by closing a land exchange deal on conglomerate Lotte-owned golf club last week.

By Bae Hyun-junG/The Korea Herald (tellme@heraldcorp.com)