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The Korea Herald
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THE INVESTOR
March 29, 2024

Economy

SWOT analysis of Moon Jae-in 

  • PUBLISHED :March 30, 2017 - 18:04
  • UPDATED :March 30, 2017 - 18:04
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[THE INVESTOR]  Moon Jae-in of the Democratic Party of Korea is a leading candidate to become president of South Korea, topping polls for 12 consecutive weeks.

Having declared his run in the May 9 election a week ago, the liberal politician is currently vying for his party’s presidential nomination. He has won both of the two primaries held this week. With two more primaries remaining, he is widely seen as headed for a resounding victory.

Born in 1953 in Geoje, South Gyeongsang Province, Moon was a human rights lawyer-turned-chief of staff to President Roh Moo-hyun, before entering the National Assembly in 2012. He ran in the same year’s presidential race but suffered a 48:52 defeat to conservative standard-bearer Park Geun-hye.



Strengths

Moon is the undisputed heavyweight of the race. His political views and credentials are well-known to voters as a result of his previous presidential run.

With stable support ratings of over 30 percent, the front-runner also runs a campaign team of an unrivalled size and is supported by over 1,000 advisers who are prominent professionals and scholars in various fields. 

Considering these factors, Moon claims to be the most prepared of all candidates to take over the presidential job and fill the leadership void left by former President Park’s impeachment. 

As a former member of Lawyers for a Democratic Society, or Minbyeon, Moon has built an image as a champion of human rights and democracy as well as an advocate of a fair and just society.

His core support base is made up of liberal-minded voters who idolize the late former President Roh. A large proportion of supporters of the Democratic Party regard him as the successor to continue the legacy of the late president, who championed making politics work for ordinary citizens, not for those with vested rights.

Weaknesses

Moon’s stable standing in the polls is also his key weakness. People question whether he will be able to break beyond his core support. 

Some say his affiliation with the late Roh, a highly divisive figure who died by suicide amid a corruption investigation, could work as a handicap, hindering his further rise.

Even followers of the late liberal icon say that Moon lags behind Roh in personal appeal, lacking charisma, eloquence or the “X-factor” that makes certain politicians popular.

Along with a relatively short experience in politics, Moon’s stance on the South Korea-US alliance and inter-Korean ties is seen as a factor that could cause doubts among swing voters.

His conservative foes claim that Moon emphasizes relations with Pyongyang more than the Seoul-Washington alliance.

Opportunities

After the stunning demise of Park’s conservative administration, the electorate is clearly leaning to the left, desiring a change after a decade of conservative rule, polls show. 

Moon’s Democratic Party is enjoying approval ratings of about 50 percent and its four presidential candidates, including Moon, have combined support of over 60 percent.

The conservative camp, split into two parties, is unlikely to find a candidate strong enough to stop Moon, as former UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon and acting President Hwang Kyo-ahn decided not to run for the presidency.
Hong Joon-pyo, the leading candidate of the main conservative Liberty Korea Party, has support of less than 10 percent, while Rep. Yoo Seong-min of the splinter Bareun Party is posting ratings of about 3 percent.

Threats

Moon’s real threat may be centrist Ahn Cheol-soo of the People’s Party, who gave up his presidential bid to endorse Moon in the 2012 election.

Ahn is riding an upward momentum, overwhelmingly leading his party’s primary race.

Recent polls showed that Moon and Ahn are about 5 percentage points apart, with Moon in the lead, in a hypothetical one-on-one matchup. More than half of swing voters said they would vote for Ahn in polls.

Therefore, a key factor that may affect the chances of Moon winning the race is whether Ahn -- or another figure perhaps -- might form and represent an anti-Moon coalition to enlist the support of center-right or far-right voters.

By Kim Yon-se/The Korea Herald (kys@heraldcorp.com)

The Korea Herald is publishing a series of articles on major contenders in the forthcoming May 9 presidential election, using a SWOT analysis to present their strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats. Below is the first installment on Moon Jae-in, a clear front-runner in the crowded race with nearly 20 preliminary candidates. -- Ed.

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