Samsung Electronics’ mobile businesses are projected to report lower fourth-quarter profits than previously expected, even as group-wide earnings hit an all-time high on the back of a memory-chip supercycle.
Brokerage estimates from Meritz Securities, Daishin Securities and SK Securities expect Samsung’s mobile experience (MX) and networks divisions to post a combined operating profit of 1.4 trillion won to 1.8 trillion won ($960 million to $1.23 billion) for the fourth quarter of 2025. Samsung reports the two units together, though MX typically accounts for the vast majority of the combined profit.
This marks a 15 to 30 percent decline from the 2.1 trillion won recorded in the final Q4 2024 results disclosed by Samsung last year.
Samsung, meanwhile, announced on Thursday that consolidated operating profit for Q4 2025 reached a record 20.0 trillion won, more than triple the year-earlier figure, according to the company’s preliminary earnings guidance. Revenue came to 93.0 trillion won, also a quarterly record.
The divergence is largely attributed to margin pressure in the mobile segment, driven by component cost inflation. DRAMeXchange reports that the average contract price for DDR4 8Gb DRAM rose to $9.30 in December 2025, up from $1.35 a year earlier. This is the highest level recorded since the firm began tracking in 2016. The surge is due to capacity reallocation toward high-bandwidth memory used in AI servers.
On the demand side, Meritz Securities estimates Samsung's Q4 smartphone shipments at 59 million units, down 3-4 percent quarter-on-quarter, as post-launch momentum faded for the Galaxy Z Fold7 and Flip7, released in July.
Despite the fourth-quarter decline, the mobile business is still expected to post solid full-year results. According to consensus estimates cited in other domestic brokerage reports, full-year 2025 operating profit for the MX and networks divisions is expected to rise 24.5 percent on-year to 13.2 trillion won, with revenue up 9.5 percent to 128.4 trillion won. Robust demand for the Galaxy S25 and Z Fold7 series in the first three quarters was seen as the main driver of this annual growth.
Looking ahead, Samsung faces a pricing dilemma. At CES 2026 on Jan. 5, Samsung's co-CEO and MX division head Roh Tae-moon warned that rising memory and component costs are “unprecedented” and would "impact product pricing." However, domestic media reports earlier this month indicated that Samsung may freeze launch prices for the Galaxy S26 series under competitive pressure, especially from Apple.
Samsung will release its finalized Q4 and full-year 2025 results, including business segment breakdowns, on Jan. 29.
By Moon Joon-hyun (mjh@heraldcorp.com)
